Take our automotive fleet. It turns over at the rate of about 6% a year. That means a 15 or so year transition period if ALL the new vehicles embody the new energy technology. Add in another 4 to 10 years for the design of the new vehicles and the development of the support infrastructure. Say the new technology is electric of some sort. We need to be able to produce 15 million automotive qualified electric motors a year. So before we can even get up to full scale production of the transition vehicle we need quite a few new electric motor factories.But then a lot of people are betting on hydrogen. But after years of hype, that doesn't seem any closer either.
In short, oil and all the associated problems aren't going away any time soon. [Hat tip to Classical Values]