Sunday, June 13, 2010

I Was Wondering When Things Were Going to Go From Bad to Worse

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
There is a long way between a low-pressure system in the Eastern Atlantic and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but it is the first step.

Update: Weather Underground
An unusually large and well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season has developed midway between the coast of Africa and South America. The storm was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season. Surface winds measured by the 8:23am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite revealed that 92L already has a closed surface circulation, though the circulation is large and elongated. Top winds seen by ASCAT were about 25 mph. METEOSAT visible satellite loops show a large and impressive circulation that is steadily consolidating, with spiral bands building inward towards center, and upper-level outflow beginning to be established to the northwest and north.

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