Monday, November 14, 2011

So What Happens If The Middle East Goes to War?

Won't do much for the price of oil. Arab press predicts regional war over Syria - Telegraph
Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based pan-Arab nationalist newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi, raised the prospect of a conflagration in which a Turkish attack on Syria would coincide with an Israeli attack on Syria's closest ally, Iran.

Other newspapers renewed claims, first raised in the summer, that Turkey was on the brink of ordering its troops to create a "buffer zone" on its border with Syria as a safe haven for refugees from the crackdown on protest by President Bashar al-Assad.
Looks bad.

If Syria is attacked by Turkey - even to the extent of creating a "buffer zone" - that would probably draw in Iran. (Just as a "no-fly zone" included bombing tanks, a "buffer-zone" is really code for an invasion of Syria.) If Israel decides in the same time window that it is on its own with respect to Iran's nuclear program, then a lot things could happen is very short time. I don't think any of them will be good.

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